MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines will be one of the fastest growing economies in the world in the next 40 years as developing markets in the region become prime sources of global growth by 2050, a new report showed.
Once tagged as Asia’s laggard, the Philippines is expected to post an average of 7.3 percent growth until 2050, making it the 6th fastest economy in the world, Knight Frank and Citi Private Wealth’s 2012 Wealth Report showed.
Among the top 10 economies, the country’s growth rate will be faster than that of Mongolia (6.9 percent), Indonesia (6.8 percent), Sri Lanka (6.6 percent) and Egypt (6.4 percent).
Nigeria tops the list with growth expected to hit 8.5 percent in the next four decades.
While Asian economies except two occupy top 10 countries by 2050, developed nations in debt-stricken Europe are predicted to post significantly slower growth during the period.
“Many poor economies have opened up and reached the modicum of institutional quality and political stability that are needed for fast growth and rapid catch-up,” Citi chief economist Willem Buiter was quoted as saying in the report.
“This, in turn, will mean an end to Western hegemony in terms of output,” he added.
Developing Asia’s share of total economic output, in particular, is expected to reach 49 percent by 2050 from the present 27 percent, the report showed.
This, as the combined share of North America and Europe dips to just 18 percent from 41 percent currently.
Buiter said Philippines will be one of the “global growth generators” or “future drivers of growth and investment potential” around the globe.
“Citi research shows that while China and India are likely to grow rapidly over the next 40 years, there are other key countries with promising chances for growth that do not necessarily match the traditional assumptions about where future growth will emanate from,” the report said.
“For example, Russia and Brazil, which make up the so-called BRIC nations alongside China and India, do not make it to Citi’s list of Global Growth Generators or ‘3G’ countries. Instead, Citi includes countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam on this list,” it added.
The report added that India is expected to become the world’s largest economy by 2050, overtaking China at No. 2 and the United States at No. 3.
Singapore, on the other hand, will remain as host to the wealthiest people on Earth by 2050, the report said.
The Philippines, which is batting for a six to seven percent growth rate this year, is off to a good start when it posted 6.4 percent expansion in the first quarter, the third fastest in the region next only to China and Sri Lanka.
Second quarter growth figures will be released by Aug. 31 and officials are hoping it would exceed the first quarter result.
The Aquino administration has targeted a growth of up to 8.5 percent at the end of its term by 2016.
By Prinz Magtulis (The Philippine Star)
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